Every year there’s a discussion about who “won” E3, but what about the loser?

E3 is a special time of year for gamers. We finally get a peek at what all of the major publishers and developers are working on. There are tons of free demos for those lucky enough to get tickets, reveal trailers and press conferences that hint at the future of gaming.

If done well, these press conferences are celebratory events for fans and publishers alike. When handled poorly, however, these press conferences are more akin to public executions. The most notably bad press conference was when Microsoft discussed the many features of the Xbox One during E3 2013. Most of the exhibited games weren’t exclusive to the system except for Halo 5, Titanfall and a handful of smaller games. But the $499 price tag was what really bothered people. Sony responded by charging $399 for the PlayStation 4, embarrassing Microsoft in the process.

Is it likely that we’ll see a large upset like that again this year? Probably not, but it’s worth examining what each publisher plans on unveiling and thinking about how big (or small) of an impact those reveals will make. Let’s take a look at the Big Three hardware developers — Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo — and predict who may go home as E3’s biggest winners and losers.

E3 2017 – Wrap Up from E3 on Vimeo.

Microsoft

The past few E3’s have been rough for Microsoft since the catastrophic Xbox One reveal. Each year showed subpar releases, over-reliance on established franchises and promising games that never saw release. There have been almost no new exclusives for the console, and the exclusives that have been released are generally viewed as mediocre at best. All of this adds up to a system and a company that just haven’t been able to find stable footing.

Microsoft has a lot of work to do if it wants to compete with the current powerhouse, Sony, or the comeback kid, Nintendo. Even with the reveal of the rumored Crackdown 3 or Halo 6, the company will need to have a consistent lineup of exclusive titles to gain any sort of traction. Microsoft would be smart to lean on the success of PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds and push a new reveal within that game, but it would require a significant addition to turn heads. A new Fable could ignite greater interest in the Xbox One, but given the company’s recent attempts at reviving that franchise, the game would need a strong hook. That’s exactly what the Xbox One and Microsoft lack at this point — something that can rope in a significant number of casual players who are looking for new gaming experiences.

One way Microsoft could attract people is by continuing its streak of solid indie games. Cuphead was a huge success last year, PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds needs no introduction and The Last Night is shaping up to be another solid addition to the Xbox One’s lineup. Maintaining this course, and making a presentation about indie titles, would not only grab attention, but it would also change the way E3 press conferences are done. E3 has always been about the big names like Call of Duty or Halo, but focusing on indie gaming would turn the whole Expo on its head. Even though this is unlikely, it would certainly be a nice change of pace for Microsoft and E3 as a whole.

As it stands, Microsoft isn’t poised to win many new fans at E3 2018. But as past years have shown, the tide could change at any minute.

Sony

Sony has dominated the console wars since E3 2013. With its consistently impressive releases, cheaper launch price and simple game-sharing policies, Sony came out swinging into the current console generation. It seems like E3 2018 will be a victory lap after a hugely successful year for Sony. The releases of God of War, Persona 5 and Horizon: Zero Dawn have cemented the PlayStation 4’s power over the console landscape.

There’s a lot of buzz surrounding the PS4’s exclusives that will be at E3 2018, most notably Marvel’s Spider-Man and Kingdom Hearts 3. Those two games alone would be enough to make Sony the winner of E3, but the company also has The Last Of Us Part II and Death Stranding to talk about. Beyond that, Sony is still attempting to popularize VR, so it’s likely that we’ll see some exclusive PSVR games as well.

By announcing so many titles at once, Sony is taking a big risk. It doesn’t want to accidentally overstuff the press conference and not give each game sufficient attention. Introducing so many games is a serious threat to any publisher or company, and the last thing Sony wants to do is overwhelm the audience — especially if it turns out that Sony has been more focused on quantity over quality.

It’s unlikely that Sony will have trouble maintaining its fanbase or attracting new players this E3, but it will be interesting to see just how long this success will last. Hopefully Sony is cautious and doesn’t play its full hand next week at the Expo.

Nintendo

The Nintendo Switch was one of the biggest success stories of 2017, elevating Nintendo from a has-been hardware developer to a serious contender in the console wars almost overnight. This E3 is most likely going to anchor another great year for the company. With the coming exclusives and ever-increasing number of ported games for the console, Nintendo is going to provide strong competition for Sony.

History is on Nintendo’s side this year: A new Super Smash Bros. has been announced; Pokemon: Let’s Go Pikachu/Eevee! was one of the biggest announcements of last week, and Metroid Prime 4 is in the works. Any one of these could carry Nintendo to an easy victory at E3 2018, but the fact that all three are possibilities sets the company up for greater success.

That being said, it will be important to see how Nintendo handles its third-party issue. The company is notorious for being tricky to work with, and the Wii U barely had any third-party games; however, Nintendo has seen the error of its ways and announced a slew of third-party support for the Switch, including Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus and Dark Souls: Remastered. This is exciting for Nintendo fans and those interested in the new console, but the company will need to sustain that support if it wants to remain a competitor beyond its niche corner of the market.

Nintendo has the most to lose of the three companies, and E3 2018 will be a prime opportunity to wow people with its first-party games and third-party support. The good will of the last year could start to fade, and Nintendo has to do everything it can to keep that fire burning.

The Verdict

Microsoft is most likely to lose at this year’s Expo, but I think that Microsoft has been in a rut for too long. Sea change is bound to happen soon. If the company can wow crowds with new exclusives and continued indie titles, then it will narrowly avoid being considered a failure yet again.

As for the winner, Nintendo is likely to be the surprise victor of E3 2018. The new Super Smash Bros. will have a playable demo, and the possibility of a new Metroid Prime are enough to propel the company past the competition and walk away with the admiration of fans. Only one thing could drag Nintendo down and that’s a lack third-party support. But given the recent announcements of the Switch’s various ports, the company is on the fast track for a swift victory at E3 2018.

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